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PETALING JAYA: While the economy is expected to be on a better footing in the fourth quarter (Q4), the prolonged movement restrictions are expected to substantially weigh on economic output this year and well into 2022.
This output gap, said RAM Rating Services Bhd (RAM Ratings), is largely due to the uneven pace of recovery across sectors and from the possible lasting economic scarring.
Early signs of scarring have already manifested in some labour market indicators, including rising under-employment and graduate unemployment, which may have consequences on future potential growth if prolonged.
Notably, most parties are expecting a stronger recovery in Q4, boosted by the rapid pace of vaccinations and the reopening of more economic sectors.
The government is targetting to have all adults fully vaccinated by October.
However, businesses will need time to recoup losses and re-establish their operations, which will delay a full ramp-up in output as well as growth plans.Additionally, certain precautions would likely still be in place, potentially capping the extent of revival for certain sectors.
Bank Negara has forecast a full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2021 at between 3% and 4%, lower than its previous forecast of between 6% and 7.5%, after taking into account the reimposition of nationwide containment measures in June.
RAM Ratings, meanwhile, is expecting the GDP to rebound to 3.8% this year.
The credit rating agency is looking at a stronger growth of 7% to 8% in 2022, albeit largely due to the still low base effects from 2021, where the economy is envisaged to still be operating below its long-term rate of around 4.5% to 5% for the second consecutive year.
“Our preliminary growth forecast of 7% to 8% in 2022 reflects a relatively strong post-pandemic recovery, where most economic sectors would open largely uninhibited by restrictions.
“Nevertheless, we do not expect conditions to fully normalise in 2022,” RAM Ratings said in its latest Economic Update report.
Despite the growth rebound expected next year, it said overall output level is estimated to remain below its pre-pandemic potential and this may continue over the next one to two years, as the decline in investment and capacity building during the pandemic years will hurt economic output for the next few years.
“Due to the severe fallout, output and progress that could have been generated had it not been for the pandemic, have been forgone completely,” it explained.Bank Negara has forecast a full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2021 at between 3% and 4%, lower than its previous forecast of between 6% and 7.5%, after taking into account the reimposition of nationwide containment measures in June.